The 2025 NHL Draft Lottery saw two teams make a significant jump up the draft order.
Neither of them were the Vancouver Canucks.
That's not overly surprising. The Canucks had of winning either of the two draws that were televised live on Monday evening. What was surprising is that two other teams with low odds did move up.
The New York Islanders had the tenth-best odds to win the draft lottery after finishing 23rd in the NHL with 82 points, eight points behind the Canucks. That gave them just a 3.5% chance of winning either of the two draws and moving up to first or second overall.
With 1,001 different four-number combinations of the 14 numbered balls in the NHL's lottery machine, the Islanders owned just 35 of those combinations. One of those 35 came up in the first draw — 7-11-12-13 — and the Islanders moved up from tenth overall to first, leapfrogging over nine other teams with better odds.
That's nothing compared to the Utah Hockey Club, which had just 1.5% chance of winning either of the two draws, with just 15 four-number combinations. And yet, one of their combinations was drawn: 1-3-5-12.
While Utah was only allowed to move up ten spots in the draft order, that still bumped them into the top five, all the way up from 14th overall to fourth.
That's painful for the Canucks, who finished just barely ahead of Utah in the standings, with 90 points to Utah's 89. The Canucks had a 38-30-14 record; Utah had a 38-31-13 record — the same number of wins with one more loss in regulation.
While it's tempting to wonder whether the Canucks would have won the second draw at the draft lottery with one more loss — say, the improbable — it's not quite that simple.
One more loss in regulation would have moved the Canucks below Utah, yes, but it also would have moved them below the Columbus Blue Jackets, who also had 89 points. Therefore, the Canucks would have had the 13th-best odds in the draft lottery and still lost.
If the Blue Jackets, on the other hand, had won more game, then they would have jumped past both Utah and the Canucks, giving the Canucks the 14th-best odds. Actually, if the Blue Jackets had won one more game in regulation, they would have been in the playoffs instead of the Montreal Canadiens.
There's no use worrying too much about what-if scenarios. Now the big question is whether the Canucks will keep the 15th-overall pick or if they will look to trade it in order to help address their big need at centre this offseason.
